The IEA-PVPS National Survey Reports for 2005 are almost complete and it appears that, after almost a decade on top, Japan has been nudged from its position as the country with the most installed PV capacity (see box). Far from being disappointed with relegation to second position though, the Japanese government and PV sector should be justifiably proud of their achievements to date.

They have after all seen their domestic market grow by a sustained 20 % or more each year since 1993 (2001 excepted) with much less backsliding and/or wild swings in demand than other countries – Germany included – have encountered. More importantly Japan still leads the world in respect of its industry and is on the verge of a self sustained – i.e. truly commercial – domestic market for PV energy services in the vital residential sector.

At the end of 2005, Japanese cell manufacturing capacity amounted to more than 1 GW. Admittedly in recent years the export market (Germany) has been the main stimulus for much of this growth, but it was the stable domestic market growth underpinned by the goal-oriented, multi-faceted policy framework that allowed Japan’s industry to build to a position of strength and responsiveness. This has given Japanese firms a tremendous head-start such that they have accounted for almost half of all international cell and module production in recent years, a leadership position which others are struggling to keep pace with.

Just as astonishing as Germany’s 600 MW of new grid-connected capacity last year, were the 50 000 to 60 000 new household systems installed in Japan. Two-thirds of these were achieved with less than 5 % subsidy under the final year of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry’s Residential Dissemination programme. The other one third was installed without any subsidy. To put that in context, those fully commercial sales equate to more capacity than was installed in any country other than Germany in 2005, and are also more than the total PV power installed to date in any country other than Germany and the USA.

At the final reckoning, the New Energy Foundation, which has administered the Residential Support Programme since 1994, can count over 250 000 household systems (almost 950 MW) and can point to an average installed price of around 650 000 JPY/ kW (5 880 USD/kW) or one-third the price in 1994.

Too close to call? Thanks to an upward revision of the 2004 data, and some 603 MW of new plant coming online last year, Germany’s total PV power generation capacity apparently rose to over 1,434 GW at the end of 2005. At the time of writing, Japan’s official figures are still to be confirmed, though we anticipate the domestic market growth was much more measured than previous years. It seems likely that just under 300 MW came online in 2005 to add to the 1,132 GW installed at the end of 2004. We shall have much more on the international PV market and industry trends in the next edition of PV Power.

Given the current constraints on affordable silicon feedstock and the aggressive targets and expansion of strong deployment incentives overseas it remains to be seen whether Japan can achieve the 2010 installed capacity target (4,8 GW) set back in the early 1990s, but the technology clearly remains of significant strategic and industrial importance to Japan. It forms one of the measures to be promoted under the energy component of the Council for Science and Technology Policy’s Basic Plan (FY 2006 to 2010) and is also relevant to the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policies’ discussion on future energy policy as part of the drive to reduce dependence on oil. We shall provide updates on Japan’s future policy and deployment framework in forthcoming editions of PV Power.

Information

• Contact: Susannah Pedigo
  Email: susannah_pedigo@nrel.gov

[ Top ] [ Previous article in PV Power ] [ Next article in PV Power ]