The IEA PVPS annual international survey report, ‘Trends in PV Applications’ is always eagerly anticipated by PV industry and policy planners, being widely regarded as an accurate yet freely-available analysis of developments in the PV industry and markets in the participating OECD countries.

The latest edition of PV Trends, updated to account for 2003 data, was published in September. This edition contains a number of new features to provide better global market context and extra analytical value. In addition to the traditional IEA country-by-country scrutiny of installed capacity in the four main application segments (off-grid domestic; off-grid non-domestic; grid-connected distributed and grid-connected centralized), the new report presents estimates of installed capacity and annual sales volumes for the major non-OECD markets. This is a direct response to requests from the readers. The status of emerging manufacturing capability outside the IEA member countries is also presented alongside that of the IEA nations. Although these external data are more difficult to gather with the same degree of accuracy, these new features correspond to the IEA PVPS strategy to cover the global dimension of the photovoltaic market. The important topic of feedstock production is summarized for the fi rst time and more details on the economic aspects of PV are included.

The report acknowledges that ‘real’, ‘selfsustaining’ or ‘competitive’ markets for large-scale adoption of PV lie somewhere in the future, with public support still important in the near-term, but the signs – public interest, industry innovation and stakeholder engagement – are on the whole quite positive.

Good things come ... One of the few criticisms levelled at the PVPS Trends report is that it takes a long time for the data to be published – typically nine months after the end of the reporting year. The process used to gather the base data is necessarily rigorous, in order to ensure the high levels of accuracy that users expect of IEA information. IEA-PVPS Task 1 national representatives contact known industry, research, policy and other relevant stakeholders in their respective countries during the first quarter of the calendar year to gather updated infomation. This is summarizd in the national survey reports, which are completed by the end of May (these are now also posted on the PVPS website around mid-June). The International Trends report is then compiled during June and July, and undergoes a further series of meticulous reviews to confirm data integrity. The final document is printed and distributed in September/October, and an electronic version is published online as soon as the layout is complete. Like a fine wine it’s worth the wait!

In terms of the market for PV power applications in IEA-PVPS countries, the 476 MW installed in 2003 equated to 36 % annual growth; annual sales volumes are currently doubling in little more than two years. Total installed power now amounts to 1 809 MW. Between 1992 and 2003 the proportion of grid-connected PV capacity increased from 29 % to 78 % of the total, up from 74 % in 2002. This is mainly due to large-scale urban or suburban focused, government or utility supported programmes in Japan, Germany and the USA. However, off-grid applications still account for more total installed capacity and new capacity installed in 2003 in around one half of the reporting countries.

Annual cell production rose by 32 % in 2003 to 686 MW while cell production capacity increased by 17 % to 934 MW – both growth rates considerably lower than last year. Currently 53 % of cell production and 60 % of module production in the reporting countries occur in Japan (both proportions up on last year).

Climate change policies have raised the profile of renewable energy in general and security of supply issues have raised political interest in all domestic and distributed energy supplies, but the implications specifically for PV remain uncertain. The report also notes that the industry development aspects of PV (including the opportunities to provide jobs) have received attention with the publication of a number of ‘technology roadmaps’.

Total national budgets for R&D, demonstration/field trials and market stimulation measures remain strong. In 2003 R&D budgets totalled over 235 million USD, with R&D receiving a clear emphasis in about one third of the reporting countries. Another third of the countries were significantly focused on market stimulation (but also funded R&D). Nominally market stimulation budgets amounted to some 1,78 billion USD in 2003, though this includes a significant proportion of loans (Germany) and state tax credits (USA). Funding of targeted demonstration and knowledge generation did increase somewhat compared to 2002, but remains small (63 million USD) in comparison to R&D and market stimulation.

Information

• The full report can be downloaded free-of-charge from the publications' section.

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