Mapping future developments

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Last updated: 25 February 2003

Since the US industry released its plan for PV development to 2020 at the end of 1999, there has been a proliferation of PV roadmapping activities. The Japanese PV Energy Association (JPEA) has just completed its ambitious industry vision up to 2030. In Europe, perhaps reflecting the difficulties of numerous national interests and approaches, there are no less than four key mapping initiatives underway. Below we provide a brief snapshot of the studies and their salient points.

USA

Aiming to ensure US industry leadership over foreign competitors, the 20 year industry roadmap is a framework for strategic plans and investments in PV technology and business. The US industry is ultimately seeking to attain technological leadership, achieve competitiveness with conventional technologies, maintain sustained market growth and make the PV industry profitable and attractive to investors. The roadmap assumes a 25 % annual growth rate in US manufacturing capacity in order to deliver 15 % (equivalent of 3,2 GW) of new peak generating capacity expected to be required in the US in 2020. Unlike the other regional roadmaps which see ‘domestic’ markets as the key driver for industry growth, the US plan sees non-domestic markets as important for near-term expansion of the US industry. Home markets become more important in the longer term as prices for PV systems fall towards the 2020 prediction of 1,5 USD/W.
Contact: www.nrel.gov/ncpv

Japan

JPEA’s ‘Vision for a Self-Sustainable PV Industry’ released in June uses the national government target of 4,82 GW installed capacity in 2010 as a key benchmark, driven largely by residential demand. The assessment sees national PV production of 1230 MW in 2010, 67,5 % of which is destined for the housing sector.
Further benchmarks are a production of 4 ,3 GW per year in 2020, rising to 10 GW, an installed capacity of 82,8 GW, and a market value of 2,25 trillion JPY (18,7 billion USD ) in 2030. By this time, the residential sector market share will have diminished to 28 %, while industrial and export markets will each account for a quarter of the market.
Annual sales to the utility sector are predicted to expand from 20 MW in 2020 to 1,2 GW (12 % of the total annual market) in 2030.
Contact: Osamu Ikki, Resources Total System, Fax: +81 (0)3 3553 8954

Europe

The European Renewable Energy Centres Agency ‘Future R&D in Photovoltaics’ presents short (to 2005) and medium (to 2010) term goals for PV components and system efficiency improvements and cost reductions. It identifies six main barriers that must be overcome to increase uptake of PV technology world-wide. Key amongst these are the need for system price reductions, resolution of silicon feedstock issues, continued development of thin-film technology and alleviation of energy storage problems. EUREC outlines an R&D roadmap to address the problem areas and achieve cost and efficiency goals. Various complementary fiscal initiatives and improved product marketing measures are also identified.
Contact: EUREC Fax: +32 (0)2 502 92 84

PVNET aims to increase the vitality and competitiveness of European industry, by identifying and prioritising key R&D issues and encouraging cross-fertilisation between PV and other innovative technologies.
Cystalline silicon is seen as the dominant technology for the foreseeable future, but investment to overcome silicon feedstock concerns is an important priority. Production innovations such as thinner wafers and high throughput sheets (as opposed to discrete cells) are expected to come on line between 2005 and 2007. Thin film development – critical if longer-term price predictions are to be achieved – will prioritize issues such as high-throughput deposition and improved encapsulation over the next four to five years, with low-cost substrates making an impact towards the end of this decade.
Contact: www.pv-net.net.

PV-EC-NET, Supported by the EC, sees fourteen European countries undertaking a benchmark analysis of National Research and Technological Development (RTD) Programmes, and a SWOT analysis for Europe as a whole and for individual nations. The benchmark shows wide variation in vision, targets and approaches of national programmes, ranging from ambitious targets for stand-alone systems to a focus on largescale grid-connected projects, and from support mainly for R&D to focus almost entirely on demonstration. Many countries show strong positions in cell research, decentralised systems and system applications, but weaknesses in implementation and marketing. PV-EC-NET will deliver a policy-based European PV RTD roadmap, harmonising common development measures during 2003.
Contact: Job Swens, Novem, Fax: +31 (0)30 2393744

To be published early in 2003, the Industrial Roadmap for Solar Electricity from the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) focuses on industrial, technical and investment options over the next decade. In this context it considers crystalline silicon technologies, thin-films, and issues relating to marketing, sales and systems technology, including a series of priority actions for each area. The political message of the roadmap is an emphasis on the urgency of major investment for achieving high growth targets set for 2010 and beyond, such as 3 GW of installed capacity in Europe and factory module prices below 2 EUR/W. EPIA sees a stable policy environment – including ratebased incentives Europe-wide – continued focused RTD and a European export promotions agency as key tools for meeting these goals.
Contact: EPIA, Fax: +32 (0)2 468 2430

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