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Denmark Photovoltaic technology status and prospects Flemming Kristensen, Energimidt A/S, Denmark Peter Ahm, PA Energy A/S, Denmark |
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The Danish government launched a new energy plan in March 2005. The energy plan
focuses on a fully liberalized energy market supported by a framework, which underpins
high consumer and environment protection, energy efficiency, subdued development
in energy prices and high security of supply both in the short and long term.
The energy plan further focuses on the ongoing development of efficient energy
technologies both nationally and in the EU, and the government wish to strengthen
the research community and the development of new and promising energy solutions.
With regard to renewable energy (RE) the plan sets quantifiable targets for the
overall contribution from RE, but no technology specific targets. The market forces
are supposed to promote the most suitable and competitive RE technologies.
The Kyoto protocol and the consequent EU agreement on GHG reduction targets has lead to a Danish commitment to reduce GHG emissions by 21 % in the period 2008-2012 compared to the base year 1990. The market for CO2 certificates is seen as the most cost-effective way to reach this target.
Renewable energy is not only a future option, but very much a present and considerable element in the energy supply: by the end of 2005, more than 25 % of the national electricity consumption is expected to be generated by renewable energy sources. Ongoing research, development and demonstration of new energy solutions including renewable energy sources have high priority in the energy plan, the two main objectives being the development of a future environmental benign energy system and a high degree of security in the energy supply many years ahead.
Photovoltaic technology (PV) is not specifically mentioned in the government's energy plan, but in early 2004 the Danish Energy Authority (EA), in collaboration with the electricity sector, the industry and other key stakeholders finalized a national strategy on PV after a public hearing. This PV strategy includes the fields of research, development and demonstration. Deployment activities in support of the PV strategy are expected to be developed in the coming years and an overall framework for the coordination of PV development and deployment in Denmark is thus expected to be in place inside a few years.
Key actors have been identified as: utilities - carrying out small and large R&D and in particular demonstration projects; network operators - identifying potentials and unresolved issues related to PV in a large network; universities and institutions - carrying out R&D activities on PV technology and its application & integration; professional consultants - catalysing a broad range of PV projects; industry - developing and manufacturing PV components and systems; NGO's - disseminating information and the general public –exhibiting steadily increasing interest in and willingness to buy PVs.
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PVs have been included in the action plan of the Danish Energy Authority (EA) since 1992 and have received increasing attention in the consecutive three-year Solar Energy Action Plans. Since 1992, the Renewable Energy Development Programme of the EA has supported about 125 PV projects, and by the end of 2004 about 2,3 MW have been installed in the context of projects and demonstrations plants. A 300 roof-top's project including 750 kWp was launched early 1998 and was completed by the end of 2001. A 1 000 roof-top programme was launched in late 2001 as a follow up; this programme targets a mix of general cost reductions, increase in end-user payment and promotion of small roof-tops. Only a few weeks after the announcement of the programme, the SOL 1 000, more than 3 000 house owners had registered their interest.
However, uncertainty about the programme due to change of government and increased demand for end-user payment have introduced a delay of almost a year in the programme implementation.
By the end of 2002, the programme reported a portfolio of some 1 300 house owners expressing firm interest in the programme and by end 2005 about 560 kW have been implemented stimulated by an investment subsidy of 40 % of the turnkey system cost, average turnkey system cost being 4,40 EUR/W. The SOL 1 000 programme has been extended until end of 2006. The average system size in the project for private households is 1,8 kWp.
A special support programme for PV applications in the commercial sector, funded by the CO2 tax on electricity, was set up early 1998. The support includes a subsidy of up to 40 % for the turn key system costs. The calculation of the actual subsidy will be in favour of high yield installations. This programme has so far not been very successful, as the commercial sector seems to regard an incentive of 40 % as inadequate, and during the last few years no projects have been implemented using this support mechanism.
Net-metering for privately owned PV systems was established in mid 1998, for a pilot-period of four years. In late 2002, the net-metering scheme was extended another four years up to end of 2006. Net-metering has proved to be a cheap, easy to administrate and effective way of stimulating the deployment of PV in Denmark; however the relative short time window of the arrangement has so far prevented it from reaching its full potential. During the political negotiations in the fall of 2005 the net-metering for privately owned PV systems was made permanent.
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In 2004, the EA became part of the new EU supported PV RTD network PV-ERA-NET focussing on EU level and national level coordination and optimization of PV RTD programmes.
R&D activities into PEC cells (Grätzel type cells) are ongoing at the Danish Institute of Technology. This activity has in 2002-04 been supported by the PSO of the Danish network operators. This R&D activity has now attracted commercial finance and a new company has been formed. Ongoing PSO support is expected from 2006 and onwards for continued R&D activities at the Institute of Technology.
At the Risoe National Laboratory basic research into polymer based PV cells is ongoing with progress reported in both efficiency and in particular in stability and life time.
In mid-1995, the Photovoltaic System Laboratory (PVSyslab) was established in collaboration between Risoe National Laboratory and the Danish Institute of Technology. The main function of PVSyslab is to certify the quality of PV systems and their installation and to help industry develop better products. The PVSyslab is also engaged in PV system monitoring and in the upkeep of a national knowledge base on applied PV technology. The PVSyslab has ongoing activities in the field of technology cooperation with developing countries; particularly in the setting up of local quality assurance schemes and test laboratories.
The first Danish book on PV and architecture focussing exclusively on Danish buildings, design, architecture and products was published in the fall of 2005 by the publishing branch of the Danish Architects Federation.
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The SOL 1000 programme run by the utility EnergiMidt, which as mentioned above, intends to demonstrate low cost and architecturally acceptable integration of PV technology primarily on existing single family houses, had implemented about 560 kW in total, by the end of 2005. The same project focuses on the gradual increase of end-user payment, this way paving the way to a commercial market with no investment subsidy. A third objective is to disseminate information and experience on PV roof-top deployment to the Danish distribution utilities. Several projects for building integrated PV systems including commercial buildings, apartment buildings and schools have been implemented, typically in the range of 2-15 kWp. The small “do it yourself” PV plants were also introduced with a size of 250Wp, and in 2005, 120 of these systems were sold and installed.
A new utility initiative has been launched in 2003 by Copenhagen Electric: the sale of certified PV produced electricity without any subsidies or other external support. The utility contracts to buy all electricity from new PV systems for the next 20 years at commercial terms, and tries to sell the same electricity to the consumers in small standard packages including a certificate. Even though the end-user cost of the certified PV electricity is 3-4 times that of standard electricity - ironically, partly because of the present tax and duty structure - the scheme reports a small but growing success.
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Inverter technologies have been R&D'd for some years, for both fuel cell and PV applications. For the latter, a commercial breakthrough was also announced in 2003, by the Danfoss related company Powerlynx; which reports in 2005 to have underpinned and significantly strengthened the commercial breakthrough announced in 2003.
PV Si cell production stopped in Denmark in 1996. A single Danish module manufacturer (Gaia Solar) with an annual capacity of about 1 MWp per shift has existed since 1996. A few other companies producing tailor-made modules such as window-integrated PV cells can also be found.
Some medium to large scale industrial corporations long established in the building industry, such as Velux Industries and Dansk Eternit, continue their R&D into how to integrate PVs in their main stream products. The products are currently under field tests in the context of demonstration projects. New companies are also exhibiting interest in this field.
A project on the integration of PVs in industrialized residential buildings was completed in 2005 with good results. In particular, the collaboration with the Aarhus School of Architecture proved to be successful with PVs entering the curriculum. The objective of integrating PVs in industrialized building processes is expected to be continued in 2006 via new projects.
There is no PV relevant battery manufacturing in Denmark at present. A few companies develop and produce power electronics for PVs, mainly for stand-alone systems for the remote-professional market sector such as telecoms, navigational aids, vaccine refrigeration and telemetry.
A number of companies are acting as PV system integrators, designing and supplying PV systems to the already competitive international market sector of remote stand-alone applications. Consultant engineering companies specializing in PV application in developing countries report a slowly growing business area.
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Total PV business volume in 2005 is very difficult to estimate with any degree of accuracy primo 2006, due to the commercial secrecy surrounding the above mentioned new business developments in the fields of Si feed stock and inverters. However, a significant increase from 25 MEUR in 2004, to 35 MEUR, in 2005 is a “best guess.” The cumulative installed PV capacity in Denmark (including Greenland) is by end of 2005 estimated to be about 2,65 MWp; an increase of about 15 % compared to 2004.
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The increasing government funds allocated to R&D into renewables are expected
to give a boost also to the PV sector, but - if left alone - may lead to an imbalance
between R&D efforts and demonstration, as the eventual R&D results need support
to be demonstrated and reach the market. However, it is the hope, that the earlier
mentioned effort to establish a national PV strategy and consequent deployment
schemes may succeed in creating a more coordinated and unified approach to PV
in Denmark.
The SOL 1 000 project targeting building integrated PVs mainly on single family houses but also addressing apartment houses and institutions is also expected to lead to ongoing availability of government funds for PV demonstration and deployment, e.g. a SOL 5 000 initiative is under development. However, funding for large scale demonstrations has proven to be difficult to find in the existing support structure of the Danish Energy Authority and the PSO system. It is regarded as obvious that without funding and a clear public support towards the deployment of PVs for yet some years to come, the sector risk will quickly diminish because of an insufficient home market.
However, the trend towards commercial sustainability for PVs is seen as ongoing and with the objective realistically within reach. Projections and scenarios now under study seem to indicate, that with the continued global technical and economic development of the PV technology, with a more permanent net-metering scheme in Denmark and with unchanged development of the Danish end-users increasing willingness to invest in PVs, a market for PV roof-tops in Denmark without any investment subsidy will emerge around 2011-12.
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